Bias-parameters
No-bias, and higher highs becoming difficult.
[pay]The open’s eventual selling held tests of the 777’00 bias-down signal as support through 10:15, signaling no-bias, and putting into play a test of the 787’00 bias-up signal. The attempt has run into resistance, and now 777’00 is being retested as support. Again. Back above 780’00 would put 787’00 back into play. But today’s expiration influences aren’t helping when it comes to fulfilling normal objectives.
Ifthe bias-up signal is tested after all, it would be a new session high, so its timing would be critical. Waiting until after the no-bias environment lapses around 11:30 would allow the probe to be a breakout that triggers a second upleg (the first having been the overnight recovery from 771’00). Otherwise, probing new highs in a no-bias environment would be more likely to reverse back down.
Meanwhile, expiration influences may not allow the normal outcome of a no-bias environment that held a test of the bias-down signal. The bias-down signal may give way as support, and under 774’00 would confirm that bigger selling pressure was taking control.
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 790.25 | 787’00 |
| …would target | 795.25 | 792’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 780.25 | 777’00 |
| …would target | 774.25 | 771’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 790.50 | 787’00 |
| …would target | 796.50 | 793’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 780 | 776’75 |
| …would target | 776 | 772’50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 800 | 796’50 |
| …would target | 807.25 | 804’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 790.25 | 787’00 |
| …would target | 781.75 | 778’25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BOTH SIGNALS TESTED | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 774.75 | 771’50 |
| …would target | 780.75 | 777’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 768.75 | 765’50 |
| …would target | 764.50 | 761’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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