Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 780.50 | 777’25 |
| …would target | 787.25 | 784’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 773.25 | 770’00 |
| …would target | 766.50 | 763’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Bias-up means sell-offs not allowed.
[pay]A push above the noon hour high nearly reached 767’00, then reversed back into the noon hour’s range. And then through it, to test 760’00. This is a bias-up environment, so the timing for a downleg is inappropriate. The structure of the push above noon hour highs is also inappropriate for producing a downleg.
That having been said, there is one template that would justify a downleg, and not a small one: rejecting a probe of noon hour new session highs. Unfortunately, since the 763’50 bias-up signal was met, this setup’s confirmation is a break back under the 757’75 bias-up signal.
Meanwhile, there is room back up to 763’50 while waiting for the bias-up environment to lapse. Buyers might even gain traction on a bounce. Back above 765’00 going into the session’s last hour would target 769’50.
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 761 | 757’75 |
| …would target | 766.75 | 763’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 754.25 | 751’00 |
| …would target | 747.75 | 744’50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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Ranging between bias-downs, or breaking them.
[pay]MACD & RSI had diverged negatively when the 759’00 bounce limit was first tested overnight. A 10-point drop from there recovered fully before breaking to lower lows, probing yesterday’s low down to 749’50. A 61.8% retracement back towards the overnight highs was followed by an opening drop to lower lows at 746’00.
This fulfilled the 747’25 bias-down target, and now the 755’00 bias-down signal is being tested as resistance. Having met the target intraday, the bias-down signal now becomes a buy signal if recovered through 10:15. Meanwhile it is resistance.
Another test of the 755’00 bias-down signal buy signal his close to 10:15 would be increasingly likely to be as a breakout. Back under 751’00 would signal the bounce had ended and the bias-down signal had held, at least targeting a retest of the low, if not a morning-long decline.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 766.75 | 763’50 |
| …would target | 772 | 769’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 758 | 755’00 |
| …would target | 750.50 | 747’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN SIGANLED, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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