Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 868.75 | 871’25 |
| …would target | 873.50 | 876’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 861 | 863’50 |
| …would target | 853.25 | 855’75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
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No-bias rally.
[pay]The open’s drop back under 825’50 fulfilled its predictable target at 821’75, then extended down to 818’00. But sellers were robbed of their traction back above 819’75 and no trending took hold by either 10:15 or 10:30.
We’ll be resuming bias signals later this week, and this would be a “no-bias” environment: Trending is unlikely to be attempted, and trending attempts are likely to retraced entirely.
So, when S&Ps probed new session highs, it was a “no-bias rally.” The rally attempt was unlikely, but now the attempt is likely to be retraced entirely. This doesn’t preclude the rally from first attempting higher highs. The timing inhibits the attempt at all, and it also inhibits me from trying to ride it. My preference is to wait for a retracement deep enough to signal that momentum has reversed back down.
That is currently triggered back under 827’00, confirmed under 825’50 and/or through 11:30. If sellers haven’t reasserted themselves by then, we’ll start considering long-entry parameters above the market. But sellers will still get a benefit of the doubt for eventually regaining control to erase this morning’s gains.
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Bias-up, right?
[pay]The bias-up target was met and its buying pressure satisfied. But the bias-up signal held as support through 10:15, making any pullback likely to recover. We’ll see about that. A 14-point drop fell to 1208’00 and probed by a couple of lower lows while 1-min (not 3-min) MACD & RSI diverged positively.
Back above 1210’50 would signal that momentum had reversed back up, confirmed above 1212’25 and targeting 1217’25. Any higher would target a retest of session highs and probably higher.
If the bias-up environment and positive divergences can’t combine to trigger a bigger bounce, then there is much bigger selling pressure visible in the pipeline.
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Bias Parameters
[pay]Other than Wednesday morning, I have stayed away from publishing Bias Parameters. The wild intraday fluctuations and wide ranges make the signal either irrelevant or insignificant, and generally a distraction from catching the sudden turns that have been so rewarding. The parameters will be back when normal ranging and trending influences return to the market first. Yes, normality will return. It just might not be the normality we’ve been accustomed to.
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1206 | 1206’50 |
| …would target | 1211.25 | 1212’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1199.25 | 1200’00 |
| …would target | 1189.50 | 1190’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met, exceeded | FAQ | |
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