Bias-parameters
Bias-down target met, held.
[pay]Despite 3-min RSI being overbought at the session high, S&Ps fell to the 1242’25 bias-down target. It was probed by more than 1 point, but held through the 1:20 timing window to avoid re-confirming the bias-down signal.
Sellers lost a lot of traction and S&Ps are once again attacking the 1248’00 bias-down signal. I would give it a benefit of the doubt for becoming a buy signal if recovered on this leg. That would help get back to session highs and neutralize the outstanding overboght 3-min RSI.
Otherwise, this might be it for volatility until the bias environment lapses in another hour.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1251.25 | 1252’25 |
| …would target | 1256.75 | 1257’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1247.25 | 1248’00 |
| …would target | 1241.25 | 1242’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met | FAQ | |
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Buying in a bias-down environment.
[pay]The recovery above prior highs never succeeded through any relevant timing window. Buyers never regained traction, but sellers had already lost it, so the 1241’25 bias-down target served as the range’s lower-end. The 1248’00 bias-down signal serves as the range’s upper-end, and it was just probed by 2 points.
Being so near the 1252’00 gap still outstanding back to yesterday’s close, I hesitate to sell this strength before reversing back under 1245’00. If the gap is filled, then back under 1248’00 would signal momentum reversing down.
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Attacking the bias-down target.
[pay]The 1241’25 bias-down target was just met within 1 tick. It might be touched on a retest, but I’m considering it satisfied and no longer a negative influence on price action. There might be other negative influences, but this isn’t one of them.
So, having fulfilled the bias-down target, the 1248’00 bias-down signal now becomes a buy signal. Its recovery before the cash session open should prevent a slide that would otherwise be bearish. Alternatively a later recovery would mean the open had gapped down, which I previously described might be bullish.
But extending under the bias-down target through any relevant timing window would instead re-confirm the bias-down signal. It could also reject and invalidate yesterday’s last-minute surge, and that would be very bearish.
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1253.50 | 1254’50 |
| …would target | 1260.25 | 1261’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1247.25 | 1248’00 |
| …would target | 1240.25 | 1241’25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger, Bias-down target met | FAQ | |
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