Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1236 | 1236’00 |
| …would target | 1241.25 | 1241’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1230.50 | 1230’50 |
| …would target | 1224 | 1224’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down, met bias-down target | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1235.50 | 1235’50 |
| …would target | 1241.25 | 1241’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1231.25 | 1231’25 |
| …would target | 1227.50 | 1227’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met overnight | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No-bias trending cuts both ways.
[pay]Two tests of 1231’25 were absorbed easily while the No-bias environment was still in-play. Inappropriate timing doesn’t go unpunished, so S&Ps surged 10 points to test the overnight high. The surge’s timing was also inappropriate, so it will need to be retraced no matter how high or for how long it extends first.
The last hour hasn’t even started, so buyers are risking expending their energy. The late-afternoon breakout is a call to action that requires trending in one way or the other. Sellers have “first right of refusal” to reverse the breakout. If they balk, buyers are next in line, no matter what the consequences.
Indeed, S&Ps added several more points to touch 1244’00 despite MACD & RSI diverging negatively. The rally could extend higher still, despite its No-bias origin. Its momentum remains intact so long as 1239’50 holds as support. Any lower might be an attractive sell signal for aggressive traders, confirmed under 1237’00, targeting at least 1227’50.
[/pay]
No-bias trending retraced.
[pay]S&Ps dropped back into the 1221’50 lows where this morning’s original buy signal was triggered. Technicals were improved somewhat, at least enough when considering the drop itself was No-bias trending that required its complete retracement. The 1232’00 origin of the No-bias decline was recovered, leaving no unfinished business.
This leaves a market that is essentially at equilibrium. As if a pendulum at rest, the first swing in one direction is almost sure to be followed by a wider swing the other way. Price action leading into the noon hour suggests that first swing will be higher.
If 1238’00 is attacked but not exceeded, then the next swing down would target 1218’00 either today or tomorrow. The market is also capable of simply ranging sideways today, absorbing the pre-open and mid-morning recoveries, moving in frustrating starts and stops.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1232 | 1232’00 |
| …would target | 1237.75 | 1237’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1227.50 | 1227’50 |
| …would target | 1218 | 1218’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested Bias-up signal | FAQ | |
[/pay]