Bias-parameters
Morning bias
[pay]
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1235.50 | 1235’50 |
| …would target | 1240 | 1240’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1230.50 | 1230’50 |
| …would target | 1225.75 | 1225’75 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No-bias. So, what.
[pay]Two tests of the 1248’50 bias-down signal failed to catch, and the noon hour bounced to within 2 ticks of the 1255’00 bias-up signal. No-bias signaled at 1:20. Then, true to form for today’s last-minute sell-offs, S&Ps dropped 6 points to test the bias-down signal.
S&Ps were still hovering there through 1:30. It’s too late to trigger a late bias-down. And anyway, the 1:20 signal wasn’t suspect. But the character of today’s earlier selling, and its indications that much bigger selling pressure was coming down the pipeline, makes it very compelling to short any new afternoon low under 1248’00.
Again, it’s not ideal, and stops should be a function of one’s own risk tolerance until 1245’00 is broken. I would normally not be interested in this setup coming so late, but the potential drop is sizable if the selling is valid.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1255.25 | 1255’25 |
| …would target | 1259.25 | 1259’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1248.50 | 1248’50 |
| …would target | 1242.50 | 1242’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-down signal | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1273.50 | 1273’50 |
| …would target | 1281.75 | 1281’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1262.50 | 1262’50 |
| …would target | 1255 | 1255’00 |
| Signal status: late Bias-down | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1259.25 | 1259’25 |
| …would target | 1267 | 1267’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1250 | 1250’00 |
| …would target | 1244 | 1244’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested both signals | FAQ | |
[/pay]