Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1280.75 | 1280’75 |
| …would target | 1287.25 | 1287’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1278 | 1278’00 |
| …would target | 1273.25 | 1273’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met | FAQ | |
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Double secret no-bias.
[pay]The 1234’00 bias-up signal was still being tested at the 1:20 timing window. It was still being tested when the window shut at 1:30. If there were such a thing as a “double no-bias” this would be it. Only then was there a blip-up, which then blipped back down as blips-up often do.
Now 1234’00 is being tested as resistance, and the 1226’75 bias-down signal is likely to be tested as support. Its retest isn’t required, but it’s likely so long as 1234’00 isn’t recovered. I don’t like the character of the noon hour rally, which I expect to be retraced entirely. It isn’t yet clear whether the low’s retest will come today, but I would plan for it under 1226’75.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1234 | 1234’00 |
| …would target | 1238 | 1238’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1226.75 | 1226’75 |
| …would target | 1219 | 1219’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1239 | 1239’00 |
| …would target | 1251 | 1251’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1235 | 1235’00 |
| …would target | 1224.75 | 1224’75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger, met Bias-down target | FAQ | |
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Bias-down target met.
[pay]The afternoon’s 1241’50 bias-down target was met within minutes of signaling bias-down. A very brief hesitation there did have enough time for oversold 1-minute RSI to recover and then diverge positively when the bias-down target was retested. The 3-minute RSI didn’t leave any unfinished business. But there is room for bouncing up to 1244’75 before buyers gain traction for something more substantial like a test of 1251’00.
From the reaction off of 1268’00 back under 1263’00 before 10:30, we already knew that much larger selling pressure was coming down the pipeline. But I am continually amazed today at how much selling is accepting continually lower prices with tomorrow’s Employment Situation report just hours away. Normally the extended selling is excessive pessimism – this instead seems to be setting the stage for a very sour reaction that could see 1200’00 retested this week or Monday.
Normally price action becomes subdued in the afternoon prior to the Employment report. That’s from becoming paralyzed by anxiousness. This current environment isn’t dealing with anxiousness so well.
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