Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1253.50 | 1253’50 |
| …would target | 1259.50 | 1259’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1246.75 | 1246’75 |
| …would target | 1241.50 | 1241’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1279 | 1279’00 |
| …would target | 1284.50 | 1284’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1271 | 1271’00 |
| …would target | 1263 | 1263’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met ahead of Beige Book.
[pay]The afternoon’s bias-up target wasn’t calculated very high since there was no accumulation pattern to trigger a rally. It was more along the lines of being noise around the morning’s lows. And the noon hour’s pattern didn’t change things.
So now the bias-up target has been met just before the Beige Book news, perhaps a bit of inappropriately timed optimism. Back under 1269’75 would signal momentum reversing down, with a stop above 1272’25. But beware the fast market conditions likely to follow the news.
If the reaction is positive, I will not be interested in getting long without first seeing an accumulation pattern.
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1269 | 1269’00 |
| …would target | 1272.25 | 1272’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1264.50 | 1264’50 |
| …would target | 1259 | 1259’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ | |
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No-bias.
[pay]A pre-open bounce to 1275’00 essentially triggered a pullback that tested the 1272’00 bias-down signal as support. The test held and produced a bounce up to 1280’00, retesting the overnight high. The 1278’00 bias-up signal held as resistance through 10:15 nonetheless, signaling No-bias.
Signaling No-bias after most recently testing the bias-up signal puts into play a test of the 1272’00 bias-down signal. The cash session already tested the bias-down signal, so its retest can be invalidated back above 1278’00 through 10:30. Since 1273’00 was just touched, I would prefer that bounces not touch 1276’00 to maintain the drop’s momentum.
Also for having been tested previously, a retest of 1272’00 would be much more likely to break lower. That would put into play the overnight low’s retest, although probably not until the No-bias signal begins lapsing nearer to 11:30.
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