Bias-parameters
Morning bias
[pay]
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1278 | 1278’00 |
| …would target | 1282 | 1282’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1272 | 1272’00 |
| …would target | 1263 | 1263’00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger, tested Bias-up signal | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias window lapsing.
[pay]The drop to 1276’00 probed overnight lows, where S&Ps have been ranging narrowly and are likely to continue. Meanwhile bounces need to hold any momentary test of 1279’25-1280’00 to maintain the decline’s momentum. A recovery would put into play 1284’50, whose own recovery would avoid closing under the 1283’00 area to signal the next ice age.
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1296 | 1296’00 |
| …would target | 1301.50 | 1301’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1290.50 | 1290’50 |
| …would target | 1282.75 | 1282’75 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Late no-bias.
[pay]The cash session extended higher to fulfill the 1303’00 bias-up target. A pullback touched the 1296’00 bias-up signal during the 3-minute bar at 10:15’s timing window. The 1-minute RSI had avoided becoming oversold at 1296’00, which I interpreted as optimism that would doom the bounce from there to failure. This was correct except that I expected the bounce to retest the 1303’00 bias-up target first. Instead the optimism doomed the bounce to invisibility.
I am surprised that buyers didn’t gain traction on the choppiness at 1296’00, but the drop extended down anyway to test the 1292’25 bias-down signal. The signal’s test is also a test of Friday’s last relative high as support. And it was just retested while MACD & RSI diverged positively, and this is a No-bias environment, so a bounce back up to the 1296’00 bias-up signal is likely. Any higher would also target 1300’00.
This morning’s high was a retest of Thursday’s high, absorbing buying pressure without improving the chart position. That doesn’t need to be proved yet, and that would be difficult to prove anyway while Crude Oil remains down so sharply intraday. I’m no less bearish longer-term once this bounce has ended, but I would start turning bearish near-term if 1291’25-1292’25 doesn’t hold as support going into or coming out of the noon hour.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1296 | 1296’00 |
| …would target | 1303 | 1303’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1292.25 | 1292’25 |
| …would target | 1284.50 | 1284’50 |
| Signal status: Late no-bias, Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
[/pay]