Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1270.50 | 1270’50 |
| …would target | 1276 | 1276’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1264 | 1264’00 |
| …would target | 1259 | 1259’00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger, tested both Bias signals | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1272 | 1272’00 |
| …would target | 1277.25 | 1277’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1267.25 | 1267’25 |
| …would target | 1262 | 1262’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Bias-down target met.
[pay]The open’s gap down never generated any buying interest to produce any sort of meaningful bounce. That’s not at all bullish, since the open’s gap from one end of a trading range to the lower-end (Friday’s highs to Friday’s lows) expended a lot of selling pressure. That means the gap down attracted more sellers than were satisfied.
S&Ps broke lower to probe the ESu 1278’75 bias-down target by 2 points. This is still above last Tuesday and Wednesday’s highs, but that doesn’t mean we won’t know earlier that their ranges will be probed. This morning’s low is under Thursday afternoon’s highs, and the momentum of this morning’s gap down remains intact so long as Thursday afternoon’s highs aren’t recovered.
Thursday’s highs are 1281’00-1282’00, which is likely to at least be tested if 1279’25 is recovered. Otherwise, under 1279’25 keeps the drop’s momentum alive, next targeting the gap back to Thursday’s 1275’25 close, and then back into Tuesday and Wednesday’s range down to 1267’25.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1293.25 | 1293’25 |
| …would target | 1300.25 | 1300’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1286.75 | 1286’75 |
| …would target | 1278.75 | 1278’75 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
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Bias-up. Sort of.
[pay]The pullback under 1290’50 has traveled round-trip, down to this afternoon’s 1283’50 bias-down signal, and then back up. MACD & RSI just diverged negatively into a blip-up above 1290’50 whose rejection is now attacking this afternoon’s 1288’50 bias-up signal as support.
The setup isn’t attractive for being long, despite already triggering this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and despite this morning’s bias-up signal already likely to persist past the noon hour. Liquidity begins evaporating Friday afternoons unlike any other afternoon, which can cut either way.
Extending above 1291’50-1292’50 through 2:30 might trigger a last-hour short-squeeze. Back under 1285’50 might instead erase all of the gains from yesterday’s close. Either way, my preference during this window is to be flat between both levels and not positioned in anticipation of either level breaking.
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