Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1288.50 | 1288’50 |
| …would target | 1292.50 | 1292’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1283.50 | 1283’50 |
| …would target | 1277.25 | 1277’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1277.25 | 1277’25 |
| …would target | 1282.75 | 1282’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1271.50 | 1271’50 |
| …would target | 1265.25 | 1265’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met pre-open | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1275 | 1275’00 |
| …would target | 1281.50 | 1281’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1266 | 1266’00 |
| …would target | 1255 | 1255’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, still being tested at the window | FAQ | |
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No-bias. The end of sellers?
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Despite the open rejecting yesterday’s last-minute rally from its origin, and then probing the pre-open low, the 1266′00 bias-down signal was recovered and No-bias was signaled. The recovery started late enough that it was probably just filling the void sellers left open, and not a new rally leg starting.
The recovery attempt extended up to test 1273′00 a couple of times, but wasn’t above 1270′00 at any relevant time that would have triggered the domino effect putting the 1281′00 area into play. Instead the 3-min RSI diverged negatively on the second test of 1273′00. Now S&Ps are playing defense down to 1268′00.
A No-bias environment that held a test of one bias signal is likely to test the other signal. It’s not a requirement, and I think today’s session will be one of the instances that proves why. At every fork in the road, sellers are still choosing the path of letting buyers trap themselves instead of finally starting the next downleg. They can’t be patient forever, but I will be patient with them a little while longer.
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1275 | 1275’00 |
| …would target | 1281.50 | 1281’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1266 | 1266’00 |
| …would target | 1255 | 1255’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested Bias-down signal | FAQ | |
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