Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1300.50 | 1300’50 |
| …would target | 1305.50 | 1305’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1293 | 1293’00 |
| …would target | 1284.25 | 1284’25 |
| Signal status: No-bias, neither signal tested | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1298.75 | 1298’75 |
| …would target | 1305.50 | 1305’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1292.75 | 1292’75 |
| …would target | 1284.25 | 1284’25 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested both signals… Overnight pattern indicates 1295’25 as the bias-down signal, which did trigger | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1297 | 1297’00 |
| …would target | 1305 | 1305’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1290 | 1290’00 |
| …would target | 1284 | 1284’00 |
| Signal status: Still testing bias-up signal | FAQ | |
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Bias-down target met. Is that enough for now?
[pay]Surprisingly strong CPI data sent S&Ps down 13 points to pierce this morning’s ESu 1277’00 bias-down target by 1 tick. Overnight strength had stopped 1-1/2 points short of the 1291’50 bias-up target.
This also fulfilled the required retracement back to the origin of yesterday’s No-bias rally, putting to rest the question of how to classify yesterday’s rally. It wasn’t exactly “chicken-or-egg” stuff, but it did matter. Now it doesn’t.
More important is whether this recent plunge changes expectations for choppy range-bound trading through the noon hour. If the plan remains valid, then this dive should soon bounce back into or to the earlier range.
The price action down here at targets does suggest buyers are trying to gain traction. And back above 1280’00 would target 1285’00. But back under the bias-down target through 10:15 would instead suggest the decline had already resumed.
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1287.75 | 1287’50 |
| …would target | 1291.50 | 1291’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1281 | 1281’00 |
| …would target | 1277.25 | 1277’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested Bias-down target | FAQ | |
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