Bias-parameters
Bias-down, but trying to bottom.
[pay]Lower lows through the noon hour are testing ESu 1282’00, where MACD & RSI are trying to diverge positively. Buyers were unable to exploit a similar setup this morning, so they’re less likely to exploit it this afternoon, but any uptick or blip-down should be taken seriously.
Back above 1285’00 would serve as a buy signal targeting 1289’00. Otherwise, new session lows through 1:30 would confirm the drop’s momentum, likely to extend down sharply through the next hour.
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1293 | 1293’00 |
| …would target | 1298 | 1298’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1287 | 1287’00 |
| …would target | 1280.25 | 1280’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
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A bias-down, a sell signal, but first a bounce.
[pay]The 1301’75 bias-up signal’s break extended down 12 points, which is 15 points under the bias-up target. Just triggering No-bias was a sell signal. But the 10:15 window was exited under 1294’25 to signal no bias-down signal, as well.
The failed early rally isn’t surprising, since the outstanding gap offered resistance when it was filled, and the expiration-day made trending unlikely. This much was already covered in today’s Trading Plan.
So, what to make of this attempt to trend down? The 3-minute RSI no longer requires lower lows, and the 1-minute RSI positive divergence makes the slide vulnerable to a bounce. At 10:30, the first half-hour’s 1292’00 is serving again as support. Trending wasn’t likely to succeed this morning, and S&Ps have gone from one of the range to the other. It does look like sellers have lost their traction, or the pattern has lost its near-term predictability.
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Bias-up target met.
[pay]MACD & RSI diverged positively into an overnight drop to the ESu 1294’25 bias-down signal. Upon recovering 4 points, S&Ps surged another 8 to touch the 1306’00 bias-up target. That was three hours ago, and price ranged sideways until the open, when the market slid back to unchanged, and lower.
More important than giving up the overnight gain is whether the 1301’75 bias-up signal will be recovered by 10:15. If not, then “No-bias” will be triggered, which equates to a sell signal if the bias-up target has already been met. And since Friday’s narrowly ranging expiration-day already suggests early trending won’t succeed, the no-bias sell signal is likely to trigger.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1301.75 | 1301’75 |
| …would target | 1306 | 1306’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1294.25 | 1294’25 |
| …would target | 1287 | 1287’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down, after Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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