Bias-parameters
Bias-down target met.
[pay]The ESu 1249’00 bias-down target was just met. The 1-minute RSI was oversold which makes the drop vulnerable to bouncing. The 3-minute oversold was not oversold, so a bounce wouldn’t be required to fail.
If still holding short for possibly extending the decline, its next lower target is 1246’50, then potentially 1235’00, so long as bounces hold any test iof 1250’50.
This new relative low might qualify as a false break from Friday’s range to allow a recovery to begin – I’m not making that call yet. It’s a too early for a recovery, perhaps an attempt closer to 11:30 would be more credible. Regardless, any strength is only noise, and possibly only a corrective bounce, unless/until recovering above 1253’25 through a relevant timing window.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1262.25 | 1262’75 |
| …would target | 1268.50 | 1268’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1255.75 | 1256’00 |
| …would target | 1248.50 | 1249’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
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No-bias… for now.
[pay]The noon hour’s dip back towards session lows under ESu 1254’00 recovered back above the 1257’25 bias-down signal through the 1:20 timing window. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, a test of the 1264’75 bias-up signal becomes likely.
Pullbacks meanwhile should hold the 1257’25-1258’50 area as support. Under 1255’25 would signal another downleg underway, presumably targeting the 1246’50 bias-down target or lower.
This morning’s renewed bias-down signal might no longer be influential, and Friday can ignore newer timing windows, so the balance of the day could be very noisy.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1264.25 | 1264’75 |
| …would target | 1270.25 | 1270’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1257 | 1257’25 |
| …would target | 1246 | 1246’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested Bias-down | FAQ | |
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Renewed bias-down.
[pay]The spike-up’s reaction didn’t dip the extra half-point to provide a false breakout down to ESu 1268’50 before entering long. Any possible false breakout might have been the brief strength up to 1272’50, but it wasn’t very breakout-like and kept me looking.
The cash session open dived to new lows that so reached 1253’00, bouncing a couple of time back up to the 1258’50 bias-down target as resistance. Since the 10:15 timing window was exited under the target, it essentially triggered a new bias-down signal. This means the trend remains down and that bounces should fail.
Patterns that developed during the open’s decline have created bounce potential up to 1260’00-1261’00. If/Once tested, then back under 1258’50 by 1-2 ticks would signal momentum reversing back down, confirmed under 1255’25 and next targeting 1242’00.
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