Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1251.75 | 1252’25 |
| …would target | 1257 | 1257’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1246.50 | 1246’75 |
| …would target | 1240.50 | 1241’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met | FAQ | |
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No-bias, and sitting at the range’s upper-end.
[pay]The 1-min RSI negative divergence was productive with a 4-point pullback. That still left time for retesting the ESu 1259’00 bias-up signal. And as expected, the 3-min RSI diverged negatively. The test held, signaling No-bias, and making likely a test of the 1251’00 bias-down signal. The target remains in-play so long as bounces hold any test of 1257’25-1258’25.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1258.75 | 1259’00 |
| …would target | 1267.75 | 1268’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1250.75 | 1251’00 |
| …would target | 1240.75 | 1241’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested Bias-down signal overnight, and Bias-up signal post-open | FAQ | |
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Late bias-down
[pay]The noon hour touched the ESu 1255’50 bias-down signal. Then it was pierced before the 1:20 timing window, which recovered it in time to signal No-bias. But wait, there’s more. Another break under 1255’50 before the bottom of the hour wasn’t recovered, signaling a “late Bias-down.”
To remain valid, the late signal should extend under prior lows without hesitation, and/or without backing up more than a few ticks. The bias-down target at 1248’00 remains valid.
The timing of this drop is odd, coming so early in the afternoon instead of later when originally expected. Timing windows can be odd on Fridays, so the drop can still be valid, but I would still keep stops relatively tight.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1261.25 | 1261’75 |
| …would target | 1268.25 | 1268’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1255.25 | 1255’50 |
| …would target | 1247.75 | 1248’00 |
| Signal status: late Bias-down signal | FAQ | |
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