Bias-parameters
Bias-up target met, its retest required.
[pay]The ESu 1271’00 bias-up target was exceeded by 2 ticks before dipping. Its test formed an “emotional extreme.” This and the overbought 3-minute RSI are two reasons for expecting the target’s retest, probably probing the original test’s high. Pullbacks should now reach into the 1266’00-1267’50 area before recovering for the high’s retest.
A deeper pullback could be disastrous. The optimism is already undermining the formation of a healthy, durable rally. But now that the bias-up target has been met, its 1265’00 bias-up signal would serve as a sell signal if its recovery isn’t maintained through the 10:15 window and “no-bias” is signaled.
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1264.75 | 1265’00 |
| …would target | 1270.75 | 1271’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1256.75 | 1257’00 |
| …would target | 1248.75 | 1249’00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger, met Bias-up target | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1253.50 | 1253’75 |
| …would target | 1259.75 | 1260’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1247.75 | 1248’00 |
| …would target | 1241.25 | 1241’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1236.25 | 1236’75 |
| …would target | 1241 | 1241’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1232.75 | 1233’25 |
| …would target | 1226.25 | 1226’75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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Second bias-down target met.
[pay]The noon hour’s relentless slide touched the ESu 1241’00 bias-down target. A Flag pattern has formed while bouncing nearly 4 points from there. A bounce from lower low s at 1239’50 before 2:30 could be the beginning of a bigger bounce – potentially back to, and through last week’s highs.
Not that anything accumulative will have happened in the interim, but it would be very inappropriate for sellers to attempt a lower low then. Otherwise, pretty much all paths point down, especially if 1245’00 isn’t recovered through any relevant timing window.
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