Bias-parameters
Bias-up target met, and then some.
[pay]The ESu 1278’00 bias-up signal’s recovery didn’t immediately extend higher, not before spending more time testing the signal as support. But it did trigger cleanly at 10:15, and the first half-hour’s high was recovered by the bottom of the hour. The bearish potential is limited to:
– Meeting the 1285’75 bias-up target fulfilled that pattern’s buying pressure.
– Oversold 3-min RSI at the open’s low and overnight require eventual retests.
– The pre-open and post-open pullbacks were optimistically shallow.
A higher high just reached 1291’25, which satisfies the same pattern’s extended targets. Pullbacks must hold any brief test of 1288’50 to maintain the rally’s momentum. Back under 1287’25 would target 1282’00, although sell signals aren’t the ideal strategy in a bias-up environment producing new highs.
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1277.50 | 1278’00 |
| …would target | 1285.25 | 1285’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1272 | 1272’50 |
| …would target | 1267 | 1267’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1262.50 | 1263’00 |
| …would target | 1267 | 1267’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1255.75 | 1256’00 |
| …would target | 1248 | 1248’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1252.50 | 1253’00 |
| …would target | 1258 | 1258’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1247.50 | 1248’00 |
| …would target | 1240.25 | 1240’75 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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Bias-up decline.
[pay]Another leg down came within 2 ticks of this morning’s ESu 1255’50 bias-down signal. Its test would have been required had the bias-up signal not triggered after fulfilling its target.
It’s not the return into Friday’s range that is surprising, it is its timing during a bias-up environment. Sellers didn’t command a single timing window, but they’ve gotten all the benefit. Being a bias-up decline, this morning’s drop is now likely to be retraced back up to 1265’00 where S&Ps were trading at 10:15.
Back above 1258’50 would preliminarily signal at least a test of the afternoon’s 1261’75 bias-up signal. 3-min RSI was oversold at the low, requiring the low’s retest whether sooner to facilitate a bounce, or later to doom it to failure.
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