Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1261 | 1261’75 |
| …would target | 1265.50 | 1266’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1255.50 | 1256’00 |
| …would target | 1251 | 1251’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-up still being tested | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-up seems biased against up.
[pay]The morning’s bias-up signal held as support through 10:15, making pullbacks likely to recover and tests of resistance likely to break higher. The bias-up target was already met, which doesn’t necessarily inhibit higher highs, but in this case it has.
A wide range has developed between 1260’75-1264’75, and every probe above 1263’50 further chips away at resistance. But that’s not yet produced a bigger bounce.
It would still be surprising to me to look back at the end of the day and not see a chunk of time spent ranging back under Friday’s highs. A close under Friday’s highs is still the most likely outcome. But it would also be surprising not to also attack session highs one more time. Regardless, a close above the 1267’00 area would be bullish.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1262 | 1262’75 |
| …would target | 1266.50 | 1267’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1254.75 | 1255’50 |
| …would target | 1245.75 | 1246’50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger, Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1260.25 | 1261’00 |
| …would target | 1266 | 1266’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1254.25 | 1254’75 |
| …would target | 1246.25 | 1247’00 |
| Signal status: still testing Bias-down signal | FAQ | |
[/pay]
The Not-no-bias-down signal.
[pay]The ESu 1257’75 bias-down signal was recovered at 10:15 to signal no-bias. A dip from there threatened to be back under the bias-down signal at 10:30. This would not have been a “late bias-down signal,” as would have been possible if the bias-down target were still being tested at 10:15.
A bias signal – whether clean or late – would have implications that define a trade. An invalidated signal has no implications. This is the influence of expiration that makes trade setups problematic.
It’s academic anyway, because S&Ps have bounced from 1253’25 to recover the bias-down signal going into 10:30. That’s “no-bias” and it makes the 1262’50 bias-up signal’s test likely if if expiration influences and 1260’00 don’t put up too much fight.
[/pay]