Bias-parameters
Morning Bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1262 | 1262’50 |
| …would target | 1269.50 | 1270’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1255 | 1255’75 |
| …would target | 1247 | 1247’75 |
| Signal status: No-bias (REPLACES THE PRE-OPEN PARAMETERS ALREADY FULFILLED OVERNIGHT) | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1245.25 | 1246’00 |
| …would target | 1252.25 | 1252’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1240.25 | 1241’00 |
| …would target | 1231.75 | 1232’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met, Bias-down signal tested | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met.
[pay]The recovery had time to trigger the afternoon’s bias-up and then extend higher to fulfill the bias-up target. If I had this recent information at noon, I would have calculated the afternoon’s bias-up 2 points higher as ESu 1262’50, still 2 ticks higher from this surge’s high. So this is near enough to consider the buying pressure as having been satisfied.
Traders wanting to remain long in anticipation of higher highs could consider a stop candidate between 1257’00-1258’25. But the predictable part of my pattern has essentially completed, from the pullback under 1243’00 to now trading 20 points higher, and needs to reassess after 2:30 when the afternoon’s bias environment begins lapsing.
Heads-up: I will need to see something extraordinary to justify risking any of the session’s earlier gains since expiration and its vagueness is just hours away.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1252.50 | 1253’25 |
| …would target | 1260 | 1260’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1245.75 | 1246’25 |
| …would target | 1235.25 | 1236’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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Late Bias-up, perhaps a little too late.
[pay]After repeated round-trips between the ESu 1248’25 bias-up signal and its 1253’50 target – including one 5-point detour to 1258’75 – the 10:15 timing window was still testing the bias-up signal as support. That prevented its failure from becoming a sell signal, but the door remained open to signaling no-bias if buyers didn’t reassert themselves by 10:30.
Actually, buyers didn’t wait very long at all, and rallied one more time back to the bias-up target, remaining above the bias-up signal through 10:30 to fulfill its late trigger. So sellers are not in control here, as they have missed every opportunity through every relevant timing window to break under a relevant support. That doesn’t mean the market will suddenly rally.
Since buyers aren’t stepping in to fill the void, the pattern has room to test the 1243’25 bias-down signal by as much as 1 point without letting sellers gain traction – buyers certainly don’t seem willing to dominate price action at present levels or this morning, or both. Meanwhile that unwillingness by buyers is matched by only an inability by sellers to regain control, so at this point I am still monitoring for long-entry oppportunities.
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