Bias-parameters
Bias-down met.
[pay]A corrective bounce tested ESu 1298’00 before reversing back down to new session lows, probing the 1288’00 bias-down target by nearly 1 point.
The three prior lower lows had each produced a bounce before reversing down. The first two bounces were increasingly higher, forming an Expanding Triangle. The third bounce retraced only 38.2% back into the Triangle before falling out of bed down to 1288’00. A 61.8% bounce would have indicated that optimism was still capable of fueling the decline. Instead the shallower bounce suggests that pessimism is finally prevalent.
Pessimism can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. It can also be self-perpetuating. We’ll know its the former if 1295’75-1295’50 is recovered on a closing basis. The latter alternative isn’t bullish, but that not necessarily any more bearish than what’s already in-play.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1301.50 | 1303’00 |
| …would target | 1307.75 | 1309’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1295.75 | 1297’00 |
| …would target | 1286.50 | 1288’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1324.50 | 1326’00 |
| …would target | 1331 | 1332’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1318 | 1318’50 |
| …would target | 1309 | 1310’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met overnight | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1327.50 | 1329’25 |
| …would target | 1332.50 | 1334’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1324.25 | 1326’00 |
| …would target | 1319.25 | 1321’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1323.75 | 1325’50 |
| …would target | 1329.50 | 1331’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1315.75 | 1317’50 |
| …would target | 1308.75 | 1310’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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