Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1380 | 1380’50 |
| …would target | 1385.25 | 1385’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1374.50 | 1374’75 |
| …would target | 1366.50 | 1367’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-down | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
[pay]
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1396.50 | 1397’00 |
| …would target | 1402.75 | 1403’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1391.50 | 1391’75 |
| …would target | 1384.25 | 1385’75 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met, exceeded | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No-bias, and then some.
[pay]The 1:20 timing window signaled no-bias by exiting between both signals. The bias-down signal’s early touch did produce a bounce that took S&Ps back to the range’s center around ESm 1395’00. So with liquidity quickly evaporating ahead of the three-day holiday weekend, the market is equidistant from either end of its trading range, with no bias signaled either way. Lovely. Shall we do this blindfolded, as well?
This environment is less than ideal for positioning in advance of a move. Instead we’ll look for moves to either end of the range and assess the accompanying MACD & RSI for reason to “fade” the move and anticipate its reversal back into the range. The current candidate is a test of 1397’50, with a stop about 1 point higher.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1397 | 1397’50 |
| …would target | 1404.25 | 1404’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1390.25 | 1390’50 |
| …would target | 1379.50 | 1380’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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No-bias
[pay]S&Ps exited the bias window at 10:15 between both signals. Each had been tested overnight, and now the bias-up was just tested again after the cash session’s open. But the test came too late to actually trigger a bias-up, and the balance of the morning is more likely to continue trapped within yesterday’s late-afternoon range. There is room for a dip to 1396’00, and then any lower would target the 1392’75 bias-down signal.[/pay]