Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1398.25 | 1398’75 |
| …would target | 1305.25 | 1405’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1392.25 | 1392’50 |
| …would target | 1385 | 1385’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Testing the bias-up. But triggering it?
[pay]A noon hour surge (possibly news-related) probed the ESm 1415’00 bias-up signal, but the noon hour was exited not much better than its 1412’25 entry. Just signaling “no-bias” without first touching the 1410’50 bias-down signal would require a test of the bias-down signal. But there’s still plenty of time to trigger the signal before the 1:20 window. The only potentially bullish scenario here is to recover the bias-up signal, and that’s not looking very likely at this moment.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1414.50 | 1415’00 |
| …would target | 1419.50 | 1419’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1410.25 | 1410’50 |
| …would target | 1404 | 1404’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ | |
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Bias-down target met (again).
[pay]MACD & RSI at the ESm 1410’75 overnight low had indicated it would be retested. Meanwhile the 1413’00 support finally gave way for a drop that has touched 1408’00.
Another point or so lower would completely retrace the gain since last Wednesday’s close, further confirming last Wednesday’s bearish reversal setup. And with the gap outstanding back to last Tuesday’s close another 3 points lower, this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes could be greeted from a very bearish posture.
MACD & RSI diverged positively on the 1-minute chart only, so this would be a good opportunity for a corrective bounce to run its course before any technical strength could appear among relevant intervals. But now instead of 1412’00, selling should resume very quickly upon probing back above 1411’25.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1419.50 | 1420’00 |
| …would target | 1424.25 | 1424’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1415.75 | 1416’00 |
| …would target | 1410.75 | 1411’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met overnight | FAQ | |
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