Bias-parameters

[pay]The bias-up signal still hasn’t produced any follow-through, and instead S&Ps just probed a new session low at ESm 1411’75. Not much of a probe actually, only by 1 tick, but that’s 2 ticks closer to the bias-down signal.

Any retest of the low (e.g. to the 1411’25 bias-down signal) while MACD & RSI diverge positively would set-up a low. The bounce would be triggered above 1413’00 and targeting 1417’00-1418’00. The low’s retest could develop from 1414’75, so its test could shorted by aggressive traders using a stop above the 1415’50 bias-up signal.[/pay]

[pay]The bias-up signal triggered at 1:20 above ESm 1415’50. A subsequent dip had recovered back to 1415’50 at the bottom of the hour, instead of extending above 1418’00 the noon hour highs. That could be a problem for a bounce, although that bounce might only limit the bias-up signal’s production to something less than its 1421’00 target.

For now there can be little further delay in the bias-up signal at least producing a new afternoon high above 1418’00. Otherwise the most bullish scenario might be only to range sideways while waiting for the decline to resume.[/pay]

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[pay]The open’s drop extended down to the ESm 1416’00 bias-down target, and then at least 1 point lower to touch Friday’s low. The level was actually tested twice, and both tests’ bounces attacked 1419’00. Above 1418’50 would target 1420’00-1421’00 before being likely to resume the decline to new session lows. Otherwise, another break under 1415’50 would have that honor.

Regardless, the balance of the session is likely to extend further down, perhaps session-long and very deeply, so long as 1421’00 isn’t recovered. Meanwhile, the market continues to behave as if the bearish scenario is in-play.[/pay]

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