Bias-parameters
Testing the bias-up signal.
[pay]The noon hour touched the ESm 1440’00 bias-up signal and reversed back into the range. A brief probe of new highs during the noon hour is always of interest, although more so when wider than the paltry 2 ticks we just saw. Nevertheless, triggering no-bias now after having held a test of the bias-up signal would make a test likely of the 1434’50 bias-down signal, which would start to unfold upon breaking under 1437’50.
MACD & RSI diverged negatively across more intervals through the noon hour, but that’s a reflection of weak hands. That’s relevant so long as the session’s total volume is not. But I will be more impressed by another negative divergence on another new session high by at least a 1-point margin that is rejected by 1:30.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1439.50 | 1440’00 |
| …would target | 1445.50 | 1446’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1434 | 1434’50 |
| …would target | 1429 | 1429’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, tested bias-up signal | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1426.75 | 1427’25 |
| …would target | 1431 | 1431’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1423.25 | 1423’50 |
| …would target | 1418.50 | 1419’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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Too-late bias-up.
[pay]The ESm 1420’00 bias-up signal was flirted with for an hour through 1:30 and yet never produced a solid reaction either way. It was still being tested as the 1:20-1:30 window opened, and not much improved when the window closed – failing to recover above the noon hour’s high just 2 points higher.
So I’m just a little more than suspicious of what is officially a “late bias-up,” but technically deficient. If long here as the basic strategy dictates, then stops should be in the 1418’50-1419’50 area – probably not any higher or lower – and under that range would target a test of the 1415’50 bias-down signal. There is no other active signal until a break either way, or until 2:30 approaches.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1419.50 | 1420’00 |
| …would target | 1427 | 1427’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1415 | 1415’50 |
| …would target | 1407 | 1407’50 |
| Signal status: late bias-up, still under noon hour high, very suspicious | FAQ | |
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