Bias-parameters
No-bias (sell signal?)
[pay]The cash session’s open failed to retest the ESm 1429’00 bias-up signal before reversing back under the 1424’00 bias-up signal. The first recovery attempt was swatted down to new session lows by the Consumer Sentiment report.
Exiting the 10:15 timing window under 1424’00 triggered a sell signal because a reversal under the bias-up signal after having met the bias-up target converts the bias-up signal into a sell signal. This action fits very well into the timing window for Thursday’s decline to resume at this morning’s open.
Meanwhile the bias-up signal’s failure reached 1419’50 where a bounce up to 1422’50 tried to rob sellers of their traction. Somehow recovering back above 1424’00 through 10:30 would be quite a feat, almost qualifying as a late bias-up. Otherwise, the decline’s next confirmation is under 1421’00. [/pay]
Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1423.50 | 1424’00 |
| …would target | 1428.50 | 1429’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1417.50 | 1418’00 |
| …would target | 1408 | 1408’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias, bias-up target met | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1413 | 1413’50 |
| …would target | 1417.75 | 1418’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1408 | 1408’50 |
| …would target | 1402 | 1402’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-up, met target (within 1 tick) | FAQ | |
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No-bias, really?
[pay]After all that pre-open fluctuation and pretty volatile stuff after the open, too, the 10:15 timing window was exited back at or near session lows under ESm 1408’00. The bias-up signal officially held a test as resistance so a test of the 1406’00 bias-down signal is likely. That is, unless the 1410’50 bias-up signal were recovered through 10:30.
Guess what. A late bounce is back above the 1410’50 bias-up signal by a couple of points. Back under 1410’50 through 10:30 would mean the late signal failed, making the 1406’50 test even more likely (back under 1409’50 would help to confirm). Otherwise the late bias-up would get a benefit of the doubt, and a tight stop.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1410 | 1410’50 |
| …would target | 1414.75 | 1415’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1405.50 | 1406’00 |
| …would target | 1398.75 | 1399’25 |
| Signal status: No-bias, bias-up signal tested | FAQ | |
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