Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1417.50 | 1418’00 |
| …would target | 1423.25 | 1423’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1413.50 | 1414’00 |
| …would target | 1407.75 | 1408’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1406 | 1406’50 |
| …would target | 1410.75 | 1411’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1396.75 | 1397’25 |
| …would target | 1391.50 | 1392’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met | FAQ | |
[/pay]
No-bias… no fun?
[pay]The noon hour was exited with a no-bias signal that has held up through 1:30. The 1403’50 bias-up signal held a test as resistance, creating the potential for a dip to the 1398’50 bias-down signal, but that setup is more reliable when triggered during the morning.
The pre-open rally on news and on volume was completely retraced into and out of the cash session open. But the retracement hasn’t developed into a rejection, meaning the rally’s origin has held as support. And for some time, as well. The timing is inappropriate for trending to begin before 2:30 approaches, but there is plenty of room to fluctuate back to the range’s upper-end at 1406’50.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1403 | 1403’50 |
| …would target | 1410.75 | 1411’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1398 | 1398’50 |
| …would target | 1391.25 | 1391’75 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Bias-down target met.
[pay]The ESm 1397’00 bias-down target was met at the session low. Similar to yesterday afternoon’s test of the bias-up target, this all developed during a no-bias environment. At least, in today’s case, it was after the bias-down signal had been recovered through 10:30, so the signal’s second break did get a benefit of the doubt. Meanwhile the 1403’50 buy signal held as resistance instead of trapping buyers above it – it’s not a reason to be bullish, but it is one less reason to be bearish.
The market won’t give a reason to be bullish without recovering at least 1401’00-1401’50, and then 1403’50. The overnight high and the cash session’s opening gap are now “unfinished business” above the market that will want to be retested. There isn’t any particular timing, but recovering prior highs in the same session (such as those I just listed) makes the current recovery attempt more likely to extend further.[/pay]