Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1406 | 1406’50 |
| …would target | 1410 | 1410’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1401 | 1401’50 |
| …would target | 1396.50 | 1397’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down – recovered through 10:30 | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met.
[pay]The ESm 1403’00 bias-up target is being probed by nearly 2 points after a dip to 1395’00 avoided reaching the 1394’00 bias-down signal. The upleg originated during a no-bias environment so its gain should be retraced back under prior highs where the no-bias signal triggered. Entering the last hour above noon hour highs is difficult to reverse the same day, and overbought RSI on a 3-minute chart is making it easier.
But the 1-minute chart diverged negatively into the highs, so I would give a benefit of the doubt today to a break under 1401’75 and 1400’25, initially targeting 1397’00 and 1394’00, then possibly under there to retrace this morning’s no-bias rally from 1387’00.
Otherwise, the balance of the session has room up to the 1406’00 (not 1306’00) area just as noise. There is otherwise no buy signal.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1398.25 | 1399’00 |
| …would target | 1402.50 | 1403’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1393.50 | 1394’00 |
| …would target | 1386.25 | 1387’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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No-bias rally underway, and that means…
[pay]The recovery to nearly ESm 1396’00 exceeded my expectations because that’s a new high and it originated during a no-bias environment. That dooms its gain to failure – its eventual gain. That might be the original 1397’75 bias-up target, or it might be 1396’25. We’ll know it’s the latter if after its test S&Ps reverse down to enter and/or exit the noon hour under 1394’00. And we’ll know both higher targets are invalid if the noon hour is entered back under this morning’s 1392’50 bias-up signal.[/pay]
No-bias in-play.
[pay]A retest of overnight highs wasn’t likely to occur too quickly, but it didn’t happen through the 10:15 timing window. Instead a drop under ESm 1390’50 filled the gap back to Friday’s close and then lower to test the 1386’50 bias-down signal. Any lower through 10:30 triggers a late bias-down that would remain in-play so long as the drop extended down with barely any hesitation before attacking Friday’s lows. Back above 1390’50 would signal a test of the bias-up signal and possibly higher underway.[/pay]