Bias-parameters
Bias-down target met.
[pay]A post-open retest of ESm 1397’25 suffered the same fate as the pre-open test, reversing to attack the 1394’00 bias-down signal. The signal triggered through the 10:15 timing window and extended down through the bottom of the hour, quickly fulfilling its 1389’00 target. Ranging 1-1/2 points either way since then suggests the target is valid, so now the question is whether basing can form here to allow a recovery attempt.
Bounces have room up to 1391’75 before buyers start gaining traction. Above 1392’50 would signal a bounce underway targeting 1396’50. Under 1388’00 would instead signal this morning’s decline extending down to 1378’00. There’s still potential for this to be more defensive posturing or healthy pessimism ahead of upcoming news, but that potential is shrinking fast.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1398.75 | 1400’00 |
| …would target | 1308 | 1409’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1393 | 1394’00 |
| …would target | 1387.75 | 1389’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ |
|
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1402.75 | 1404’00 |
| …would target | 1408.50 | 1409’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1394 | 1395’00 |
| …would target | 1387.75 | 1389’00 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ |
|
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Ineffectual bias-up.
[pay]This morning’s bias-up signal wasn’t confirmed by extending above the first of two overnight highs at ESm 1402’50 through 10:30. It was later touched, but that was too late, and it has only produced a reaction down to 1397’00. Now this morning’s bias signal is starting to lapse.
The overnight highs still haven’t proved themselves to be more than just noise or fluctuation around Friday’s high, so their retests aren’t required. Meanwhile the overnight low hasn’t been touched – this isn’t required, and the post-open dip into negative territory can suffice. Not resuming the rally does give sellers a chance to gain traction, and could actually keep the market from reacting to this morning’s bias-up.
This afternoon’s bias-down signal might be 1395’00, 1 point higher than this morning’s signal. The bias-up should be either 1402’50 or 1404’00.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1398 | 1399’25 |
| …would target | 1404.25 | 1405’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1392.75 | 1394’00 |
| …would target | 1387.75 | 1389’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ |
|
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