Bias-parameters
No-bias? No buyers.
[pay]The news story’s reaction hasn’t extended any lower, but it apparently did damage. Its effect should have been retraced entirely by now otherwise. That makes it tough to be a buyer, also considering that the bias-up signal wasn’t tested or even touched. The noon hour was both entered and exited above prior lows to take away sellers traction, but that hasn’t attracted any new buyers. I don’t mind taking a bias signal outside of a timing window on Friday afternoons, so I would still sell under the ESm 1384’00 bias-down signal. Strength here would get me interested in being long, but no impatiently.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1390 | 1391’25 |
| …would target | 1394.25 | 1395’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1382.75 | 1384’00 |
| …would target | 1376.25 | 1377’50 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1394.25 | 1395’50 |
| …would target | 1400.50 | 1401’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1389 | 1389’25 |
| …would target | 1383 | 1384’25 |
| Signal status:No-bias, tested both signals | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met.
[pay]The ESm 1398’25 bias-up target was met and the signal is officially flat. An appropriate stop for traders choosing to remain long is 1395’75, or 1-2 very brief ticks below it. The bias environment will start lapsing now at 2:30. Back above 1398’25 through the top of the hour or not far past it would help the rally to extend higher into the close, and then throughout Friday into Monday’s open.
But I would still keep the stop in place through whatever timing window. It can also serve as a short-entry parameter, initially targeting a retest of this afternoon’s 1391’25 bias-up signal as support. MACD & RSI just diverged negatively into a retest of the bias-up target, so a last-hour dive can’t be ruled out.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1390 | 1391’25 |
| …would target | 1397 | 1398’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1382 | 1383’25 |
| …would target | 1377 | 1378’25 |
| Signal status: Testing bias-up signal at 1:20 | FAQ |
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