Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1392.25 | 1394’00 |
| …would target | 1408.50 | 1410’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1387.50 | 1389’00 |
| …would target | 1379.25 | 1381’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1373 | 1374’50 |
| …would target | 1379.75 | 1381’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1368 | 1369’25 |
| …would target | 1361.75 | 1363’00 |
| Signal status: bias-up target met overnight | FAQ | |
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Bias-up.
[pay]The afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered above ESm 1363’00. S&Ps extended to new afternoon highs through 1:30 and above 1365’00 to help confirm. This rally should accomplish what the morning’s rally failed to do, by reaching its 1370’50 target. But any touch of 1364’00 needs to reverse up quickly to another new afternoon high so that sellers don’t gain traction, which would be signaled under 1363’00. The noon hour’s new low fulfilled near-term unfinished business at lower levels, which means the rally has no excuse not to extend higher, and also that failing to extend higher would represent new selling interest just beginning.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1361.50 | 1363’00 |
| …would target | 1369 | 1370’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1357.50 | 1358’75 |
| …would target | 1354.50 | 1356’00 |
| Signal status: Bias-up | FAQ |
|
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Fighting for the bias-up.
[pay]The recovery has progressed nicely, eventually forming another emotional extreme at ESm 1368’00. This required a retest and that retest is currently underway, offering an opportunity to sell a potential near-term peak. It’s still a couple of points under the minimum target: a test of the 1370’50 bias-up signal that is required since the bias-down signal held its test through the 10:15 bias window. And a test of the 1372’25 overnight high is still a distinct possibility. So at the very least, stops can be raised to 1366’00 or a littl lower to allow room for a probable consolidation before possibly resuming the rally.[/pay]