Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1387.50 | 1389’00 |
| …would target | 1392.75 | 1394’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1381 | 1382’25 |
| …would target | 1373.75 | 1375’25 |
| Signal status: late bias-down | FAQ | |
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No-bias, for lack of trying.
[pay]The recovery above ESm 1383’00 only produced a lengthy narrow range around Friday’s 1385’50 lows. The noon hour was entered and exited above Friday’s lows, which would suggest sellers had lost traction if they hadn’t already lost it above 1383’00. More important is whether buyers are gaining traction in their place, as a 3-point surge going into the noon hour’s end would have us believe.
The surge originated from a narrow extended range that was already likely to produce a false break in one direction that would be reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. The afternoon’s 1388’50 bias-up signal wasn’t recovered through 1:20, and so long as it isn’t recovered through 1:30 the break is false and likely to reverse down.
The reversal down wouldn’t be signaled until breaking under 1385’50–1386’50, confirmed under 1383’00 to reinstate the 1377’25 target. Otherwise, the most bullish scenario through 2:30 could be ranging between 1385’00-1390’00.[/pay]
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1387 | 1388’50 |
| …would target | 1383 | 1394’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1381.50 | 1382’75 |
| …would target | 1375.75 | 1377’25 |
| Signal status: No-bias | FAQ |
|
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1392.50 | 1394’00 |
| …would target | 1399.25 | 1400’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1384 | 1385’50 |
| …would target | 1375.75 | 1377’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-down | FAQ |
|
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Falling in a bias-up environment.
[pay]The noon hour was entered above the ESm 1394’00 bias-up signal, and also exited above it. The noon hour’s higher high was tested momentarily before 1:20, but then recovered up to 1398’25 by 1:30. Apparently buyers expended a lot of energy in all that, since S&Ps have since fallen to nearly 1391’00. MACD & RSI didn’t deteriorate much throughout, and they’re even trying to diverge positively here at new afternoon lows at the bottom of the hour.
Back above 1395’50 not long after the top of the hour would have potential to deliver a week-ending short-squeeze. That only gets less likely with each passing minute, so I wouldn’t position for it early. But it is difficult giving too much credibility to this break under 1394’00 with technicals not deteriorating.[/pay]