Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| WED morning signal | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1377 | 1378’75 |
| …would target | 1383.75 | 1385’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1371 | 1372’50 |
| …would target | 1363.75 | 1365’50 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target met FAQ | ||
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1353.25 | 1355’00 |
| …would target | 1363.50 | 1365’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1346.50 | 1348’00 |
| …would target | 1340.75 | 1342’50 |
| Signal status: bias-up (10:15am ET or 1:20pm ET) FAQ | ||
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Bias-up target met. Big base forming.
[pay]The recovery’s threat to gap open above yesterday’s high is now threatening to fall back under it. A 20-point rally probed the ESm 1333’00 bias-up target by 2 points, which has been the center of a 90-minute consolidation. MACD & RSI didn’t simultaneously deteriorate or diverge negatively until the actual high, which was itself a momentary spike up that retested the bias-up target’s first touch.
The overbought and deteriorating technicals might neutralize themselves without incident if S&Ps can continue to hover around session highs. I suspect that the 1328’00-1329’00 pullback limit will be tested as support regardless – regardless of whether the dip extends down to retest the 1326’25 bias-up signal.
By the way, the bias-up signal is now a bias-down signal since the bias-up target has been tested. That would surprise me, since the overnight low combined with yesterday’s mid-morning low have formed a sizable base capable of launching a sizable rally – which is being advertised by the overnight high, recovering for a deficit, no less.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1324.50 | 1326’25 |
| …would target | 1331.50 | 1333’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1316.75 | 1318’25 |
| …would target | 1309.50 | 1311’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-up target met overnight (waiting for trigger, 10:15am ET or 1:20pm ET) FAQ | ||
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Bias-up… paging Bias-up…
[pay]The afternoon’s bias-up signal doesn’t mean price can’t try to trend down. The signal means that’s unlikely, not impossible. But when trending down is attempted during a bias-up environment, it is likely to be retraced entirely, and then reversed to higher highs.
That’s being tested right now. The afternoon’s bias-up signal was triggered by S&Ps being above ESm 1327’25 through 1:20-1:30pm ET. Now a pullback to 1324’00 is probing the support of this morning’s 1326’50 high. That needs to be recovered through 2:30 just to avoid letting sellers gain traction. Back above 1328’00-1329’00 would help buyers gain traction, too.
MACD is in negative territory but it hasn’t deteriorated further in the past 15 minutes, and that deterioration never exceeded its low of 30 minutes ago. Meanwhile, RSI made two higher lows. Volume is firm but needs to increase noticeably to confirm any renewed buying here. And buying does need to be renewed here so a last-hour downleg doesn’t begin.[/pay]