Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1327’25 | |
| …would target | 1333’00 | |
| Bias-down: under | 1321’00 | |
| …would target | 1315’25 | |
| Signal status: Bias-up | ||
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Bias-down target met, and the plot thickens…
[pay]S&Ps continued sliding to and through the ESm 1311’25 bias-down target, reaching 1309’50. One hour of ranging around the target was long enough for MACD & RSI to begin improving, eventually diverging positively. That wasn’t much basing, but it has nonetheless produced a retracement back up to and through Friday’s close, reaching 1320’75.
The overnight low is a “new Globex trend extreme” that will require being retested during regular trading hours – not necessarily today, but usually. Leaving it outstanding, in order to rally first, would be in-line with the expectation for any retest of last week’s highs to precede a new downleg to new lows for the year. Retesting the overnight low first would be vulnerable to sellers gaining traction for producing that new downleg without delay.
Regardless, this upleg can peak here around 1320’00, and probably should if the lows are going to be retested today.[/pay]
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1320 | 1322’00 |
| …would target | 1326 | 1328’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1314 | 1316’00 |
| …would target | 1309.50 | 1311’25 |
| Signal status: Bias-down target mete overnight, bias-down signal recovered… No-bias | ||
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1333 | 1335’00 |
| …would target | 1338.25 | 1340’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1327.25 | 1329’00 |
| …would target | 1322.50 | 1324’50 |
| Signal status: still testing bias-down through 1:20-1:30 | ||
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Bias-down target held, bias-down mentality tough to shake.
[pay]The bias-down target’s test was retested, and a 5-1/2 point bounce has recovered back to the ESm 1333’00 bias-down signal. It’s every bit as much resistance as it was support. So its recovery would be that much more bullish. But not bullish enough – back above 1335’00 would be better, but only 1333’00 was required, and declining volume during the recovery isn’t very bullish. So, I’ll have afternoon bias signals, but not a lot of confidence in any other trending that isn’t accompanied by rising volume – not even if the trending is up, and consistent with the potential for a bottom.[/pay]