Bias-parameters
Gap up, bias-up… two out of three ain’t bad.
Well, it’s not great.
[pay]The overnight rally had extended pre-open to 1867.50. The open blipped up to quickly test the 1868.50 bias-up target. And the balance of the bias timing window trended down to test the 1863.00 bias-up signal.
It wasn’t actually trending, just a series of lower highs and lower lows. Maybe it wasn’t actually a bias-up, just its recovery through the open.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m still not bearish. An opportunity failed to reject bias-up through 10:30 when a probe under it was retraced. But only back to 1863.00, which doesn’t qualify for rejecting its 10:15 recovery, but also doesn’t help to trap sellers.
And now 1863.00 support is being probed again.
Typically, rejecting a gap up above prior highs is done during the opening 15 minutes. Today’s wasn’t. Typically, rejecting a triggered bias-up is done decisively at 10:30, and this one wasn’t. Sellers are weak hands, but only slightly weaker than buyers.
Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under the first hour’s 1861.25 low would invalidate the 10:15 signal that avoided being invalidated at 10:30. Otherwise, resolving up remains likelier.
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1870.00 | 1863.00 |
| …would target | 1875.50 | 1868.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1857.25 | 1850.25 |
| …would target | 1852.00 | 1845.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1862.75 | 1855.50 |
| …would target | 1869.00 | 1862.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1855.00 | 1848.00 |
| …would target | 1850.25 | 1843.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1862.75 | 1855.50 |
| …would target | 1869.25 | 1862.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1852.25 | 1845.00 |
| …would target | 1847.25 | 1840.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1859.50 | 1852.25 |
| …would target | 1866.75 | 1859.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1850.25 | 1843.00 |
| …would target | 1844.75 | 1837.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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