Bias-parameters

Two bias-down targets exceeded through the open.

[pay]Failing to hold the 1831.25 bias-down target through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-down signal, and put into play the next lower target at 1827.00. The pre-open drop had already touched 1827.00, and bounced off of it.

Failing to hold 1827.00 through 10:15 would put into play 1821.50. The post-open drop resumed the decline, and met 1821.50 just before 10:15. Then at 10:15. And now it’s being attacked into the bottom of the hour. RSIs have been diverging positively.

Back above 1824.00 would trigger at least a corrective bounce targeting 1827.00. Fluctuation around 1821.50 could visit 1818.00. Despite RSIs diverging positively, the pattern is likelier to probe lower than it is to bounce — even a corrective bounce.

This afternoon might be different. Recovering 1821.50 through the close is the minimum requirement to keep alive near-term recovery potential. But at this stage, the trend remains down.

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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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A very interesting juncture.

[pay]This afternoon’s 1832.50 bias-up signal triggered at 1:20. The highest print at that time was 1835.00, which is being retested now up to 1836.00. Anything higher would all but ensure fulfilling the 1837.25 bias-up target.

RSIs are diverging negatively on the retest of 1835.00. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back under 1832.50 wouldn’t invalidate the bias-up, but it would still reverse momentum down.

Otherwise, sellers could be marginalized for the day. Fulfilling the bias-up target could be a formality on the way back to and through the 1844.00 opening highs.

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