Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1846.50 | 1841.00 |
| …would target | 1851.75 | 1846.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1842.00 | 1836.50 |
| …would target | 1836.75 | 1831.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
[pay]
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1851.50 | 1846.25 |
| …would target | 1856.25 | 1851.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1843.00 | 1838.00 |
| …would target | 1838.25 | 1833.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]
Horseshoes, hand grenades and renewed bias targets.
Renewed bias-up all but met.
[pay]Being a renewed target, this morning’s 1846.25 renewed bias-up target cannot become “unfinished business above.” Anyway, it was met already to within 2-3 ticks.
Its reaction down held a test of the 1841.00 bias-up signal as support. Firming into the noon hour might have prevented a corrective dip ahead of this afternoon’s Beige Book release.
Avoiding a corrective dip isn’t necessarily predictive either way. I could have helped to refuel buyers for extending the rally, but it also would have been vulnerable to extending down. And not correcting before Beige Book could keep optimism alive for a more aggressive late upleg.
Until rejecting a probe of fresh highs, or until exiting a relevant timing window well under 1841.00, there probably won’t be any other sell signal calculated before Beige Book’s release.
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Afternoon bias
[pay]
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1849.75 | 1844.50 |
| …would target | 1860.75 | 1850.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1843.25 | 1838.00 |
| …would target | 1838.25 | 1833.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TOUCHED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1841.25 | 1836.00 |
| …would target | 1846.25 | 1841.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1831.50 | 1826.25 |
| …would target | 1826.00 | 1820.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
[/pay]