Bias-parameters
Bias-up… invalidated
Bias-up signal triggered, barely, and then not for long.
[pay]A pre-open surge extended higher to neutralize yesterday’s 1838.00 “unfinished business above” on the way to 1840.00. Its reaction failed to recover 1839.50 through 9:45, suggesting that buyers had reached a stage of too enthusiastic to maintain their pace. And that suggested the bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger.
In addition to being yesterday’s unfinished business above, 1838.00 is also this morning’s bias-up signal, and it served repeatedly as support while ranging back up to 1839.50 through the 10:15 bias timing window. The 1838.00 bias-up signal wasn’t touched within 3 minutes either way of 10:15, so no grace period was invoked.
Bias-up triggered.
However, 1838.00 was touched to within 1 tick within 3 minutes of the bias timing window. And at 10:30 it was being tested, while the 1838.00-1839.50 range simply extended. Those weren’t huge grains of salt, just plentiful. And now fresh lows at 10:30 are extending to probe under 1837.00.
Bias-up is invalidated.
There is no requirement to test the bias-up target, or for an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. But today’s downside potential depended upon absorbing buyers early, and they were.
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1843.50 | 1838.00 |
| …would target | 1848.25 | 1842.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1837.50 | 1832.00 |
| …would target | 1832.75 | 1827.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1839.75 | 1834.25 |
| …would target | 1843.50 | 1838.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1835.25 | 1829.75 |
| …would target | 1830.50 | 1825.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1835.25 | 1829.50 |
| …would target | 1839.50 | 1834.00 |
| Bias-down: under | .1829.50 | 1824.00 |
| …would target | 1824.75 | 1819.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1829.75 | 1824.00 |
| …would target | 1833.75 | 1828.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1824.75 | 1819.00 |
| …would target | 1820.00 | 1814.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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