Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1790.50 | 1784.25 |
| …would target | 1796.00 | 1790.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1784.25 | 1778.25 |
| …would target | 1777.75 | 1771.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Bias-up renewed… almost doubly-so.
Despite having probed above it, the renewed bias-up target held.
[pay]Q: What do you call a bias-up signal that is renewed only once, but not twice? A: Bias-up.
The 1779.50 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed bias-up target was still being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal again. But that’s still a bias-up.
Buyers aren’t exploiting the opportunity at this moment, but sellers were marginalized entirely. Combined with having maintained a gap up above prior highs to trigger a “session-long rally,” any pullback is likely to recover to fresh session highs.
That’s the premise.
Exiting the bias environment back under its 1779.50 bias-up target — in other words, rejecting whatever was exceeded at 10:15 to be bullish — would invalidate the bias-up. And being a session-long rally, invalidating the bias-up would also invert the bias. That would likely trend down into negative territory.
Meanwhile, a pullback from the open’s 1786.25 high just touched 1781.00. Recovering 1781.00 through 9:45 had made the bias-up likely to be renewed, so resuming the rally from here would be very helpful confirmation.
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Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1779.50 | 1773.50 |
| …would target | 1785.50 | 1779.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1773.00 | 1767.00 |
| …would target | 1768.00 | 1762.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1779.75 | 1773.50 |
| …would target | 1784.00 | 1777.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1772.50 | 1766.25 |
| …would target | 1767.25 | 1761.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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noN-bias = no-trending
Narrow ranging since the signal.
[pay]Still testing the 1767.75 bias-down signal at 10:15-10:30 removed any bias influence. No target or offsetting signal’s test was in-play. The morning could have ranged widely, or trended anyway.
It has basically done nothing, fluctuating in a narrow 3-point range. The bias environment is lapsing at 11:30 with the 1767.00-1770.00 range intact.
Above 1770.75 would signal that momentum was reversing up to potentially attack session highs. That’s just 4 points higher. Back under 1767.00 would start to signal new sponsorship was launching a new downleg to resume this morning’s decline.
A decline may be the only way to reintroduce afternoon volatility. That, or recovering from new lows probed during the noon hour.
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