Bias-parameters
noN-bias at the bias-down signal.
Testing of bias-down signal held, didn’t hold, and then did neither.
[pay]The overnight recovery had probed this morning’s 1775.50 bias-up signal by 2 points. But a pre-open 6-point slide fell back to 1770.75. Its reaction up into the open came within 3 ticks of 1775.50, and then slid 7 points to touch this morning’s 1767.75 bias-down signal.
That’s a lot of volatility. But, wait, there’s more…
A bounce had retraced back down to the 1767.75 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. And then, despite extending down to 1765.50 — yesterday’s noon hour low — a bounce back up to 1770.00 has prevented triggering a late bias-down.
When it mattered at 10:30, that bounce back up to 1770.00 was still testing the 1767.75 bias-down signal. This is not a bias-down environment, nor is it a no-bias environment. The bias-down target isn’t in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. The bias parameters are not influential this morning.
I’m expecting the current bounce to at least touch 1770.75. Resistance above it could be challenged at 1772.75 and 1774.25. But I’m not yet counting out sellers from regaining control when the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30, or going into the noon hour. The bounce from touching yesterday’s low seems obligatory.
If that isn’t obvious by then, buyers and sellers both could be marginalized for the day, with narrow ranging into the close.
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1781.50 | 1775.50 |
| …would target | 1786.75 | 1780.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1774.75 | 1767.75 |
| …would target | 1768.00 | 1762.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1783.25 | 1777.00 |
| …would target | 1788.00 | 1781.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1775.50 | 1769.25 |
| …would target | 1770.75 | 1764.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1788.00 | 1781.25 |
| …would target | 1793.50 | 1786.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1779.25 | 1772.25 |
| …would target | 1773.00 | 1766.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1796.25 | 1796.00 |
| …would target | 1801.75 | 1801.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1789.00 | 1788.75 |
| …would target | 1782.50 | 1782.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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