Bias-parameters
BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET.
And bias-down target probed.
[pay]Two-thirds of the bullish scenario had developed overnight — fresh lows testing 1799.50 were retraced to unchanged. The bullish scenario’s third condition was missing. Since buyers gained no traction yesterday, rallying this morning required gapping up. But that wasn’t being indicated.
Two out of three ain’t good. Lacking that third element would not be less bullish. It would be bearish. If not extended into positive territory, the pre-open bounce would have only stretched the rubber band before snapping back down to fresh lows.
In fact, the open immediately began dipping under 1803.00 back to 1799.50, and then sharply lower. The 1793.25 bias-down target was fulfilled.
The 1793.25 bias-down target also held through 10:15. Triggering bias-down is not bullish, but holding a test of the target can allow a bottom to form.
It didn’t. At least, it had not, not yet. Oversold RSIs encouraged the low’s retest down to 1791.00. At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively there. Also, another sell signal that had triggered and confirmed was quickly invalidated. And now the 1793.25 bias-down target has been revisited twice.
Back under 1791.25 would start to signal the drop was resuming. But back above 1793.25 would start to signal the drop is being retraced, initially targeting 1797.00.
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1808.50 | 1808.00 |
| …would target | 1813.25 | 1813.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1799.75 | 1799.50 |
| …would target | 1793.75 | 1793.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1807.50 | 1807.00 |
| …would target | 1812.50 | 1812.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1800.00 | 1799.50 |
| …would target | 1793.50 | 1793.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
Clearing one more hurdle would be helpful, though.
[pay]The pre-open plunge from attacking 1811.50 fell to 1802.50. The first half-hour ranged around the 1805.25 bias-down signal instead of extending down further.
Now the the 1805.25 bias-down signal has held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. And having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 1812.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
All of which is in-line with the premise that pessimism upon attacking 1812.00 makes its test likelier, and any interim sell-off should recover.
Recovering 1807.00-1808.00 by now would have been helpful confirmation that momentum was actually reversing up. Back under the 1805.25 bias-down signal through 10:30 would still invalidate the 10:15 no-bias signal.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1812.50 | 1812.00 |
| …would target | 1817.50 | 1817.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1805.75 | 1805.25 |
| …would target | 1800.00 | 1799.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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