Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1798.75 | 1797.50 |
| …would target | 1803.50 | 1802.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1791.50 | 1790.25 |
| …would target | 1786.75 | 1785.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Still testing bias-down signal.
Opening recovery attempt trying to avoid bias-down.
[pay]Despite bouncing to 1798.50, the 1796.00 bias-down signal was touched at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Holding as support through 10:30 would still trigger no-bias, and put into play an offsetting test of the 1805.00 bias-up signal. But being triggered late, a fresh high above 1798.50 at 10:30 would be helpful confirmation.
Back under 1796.00 through 10:30 would trigger bias-down. Also for having been triggered late, fresh lows at 10:30 would help to confirm. That would be more difficult, since that would be under 1793.00.
That wouldn’t invalidate the late bias-down. “Lower prior highs” at 1791.50 and the 1791.00 bias-down target would still be in-play. Still overlapping bias-down at 10:30 would be likely to trend down, too.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1806.50 | 1805.00 |
| …would target | 1811.25 | 1810.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1797.25 | 1796.00 |
| …would target | 1792.50 | 1791.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1808.25 | 1806.75 |
| …would target | 1813.25 | 1812.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1802.25 | 1801.00 |
| …would target | 1796.00 | 1794.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
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“NO-BIAS” barely defines it.
Wide-ranging open keeps returning to unchanged.
[pay]A pre-open recovery extended through the open to twice test 1806.75. Recovering it through 9:45 would have been likely also to test the bias-up signal above it. Holding its test made the bias-up signal’s test less likely, or at least likely to hold.
There was no higher high, let alone a test of the bias-up signal. Holding 1806.75 produced a steep slide to 1801.25. Price action since then has ranged a little more narrowly, but not much, back up to 1804.00-1805.00.
And recall that 1804.00 was Friday’s cash session close. Unchanged.
Probing higher earlier doesn’t make buyers credible, not if the probe isn’t maintained. Consolidating in negative territory or unchanged, so close to 10:15, further undermines buyers. But credibility doesn’t then default to sellers, since they haven’t been very productive either.
So, this morning’s choppy action doesn’t reflect any sponsorship able to maintain a trend. It doesn’t tell us trending won’t be attempted — just that the trending is likely to fail. A fresh session extreme testing either 1799.50-1809.25 bias signal would likely reverse back in the opposite direction.
Still sitting at 1804.00 unchanged is likelier to test 1799.50 first. But that’s not a signal.
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