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Bias-parameters – Page 511 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bias-parameters

Afternoon bias

[pay]

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1791.25 1790.25
…would target 1798.25 1797.50
Bias-down: under 1784.00 1783.25
…would target 1779.00 1778.00
Signal status: no-bias FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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Morning bias

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THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1798.50 1797.50
…would target 1803.50 1802.75
Bias-down: under 1788.25 1787.50
…would target 1782.25 1781.25
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

Afternoon bias

[pay]

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1798.50 1797.50
…would target 1803.75 1802.75
Bias-down: under 1791.25 1790.25
…would target 1786.00 1785.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

[/pay]

Morning bias

[pay]

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above 1797.25 1796.00
…would target 1804.25 1803.00
Bias-down: under 1789.50 1788.25
…would target 1783.50 1782.25
Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the morning’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

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LATE BIAS-DOWN

Shallow noon hour bounce gives way to another low.

[pay]A bounce into the noon hour peaked upon testing 1793.00. Any higher would have triggered a bigger corrective bounce. Back under 1791.25 would signal the bounce had ended.

The bounce ended. Did the drop end, too?

1791.25 and 1793.00 each held two more touches before finally breaking the lower-end. The lower-end’s break didn’t delay extending down to 1787.50.  Unlike the morning’s 1789.00 low, only one RSI is oversold.

The 1790.25 bias-down signal was still being touched at 1:20,  so its eventual break is a late signal.

So, both RSIs aren’t oversold at the new low, and since the bias-down signal triggered late. Exiting the bias environment back above the noon hour’s 1793.00 test would signal that momentum was reversing up. No “unfinished business below” would be  left outstanding.

Otherwise, the trend remains down, next targeting 1785.50, and probably also 1780.00.

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