Bias-parameters
Let’s see whether no-bias means no-bias.
A drop from “out of nowhere” is likely to retrace.
[pay]The noon hour’s narrow range didn’t threaten either bias parameter. Not through the 1:20 timing window, and not by 1:30, either. Ten minutes later price plunged nearly 6 points down to 1169.00.
Anything under the afternoon’s 1171.50 bias-down signal in a no-bias environment is no-bias trending. Trending during this window at all wasn’t likely to be attempted. All of the trending attempted is likely to be retraced. And the no-bias trending’s retracement would be likely to slingshot price back to prior highs.
RSIs were mixed at the 1069.00 low. While 1-minute diverged positively, 3-minute made a higher oversold low. There is no particular timing for the recovery, but back above 1171.50 would target 1173.50-1174.00.
Closing back under yesterday’s 1170.50 highs would be interesting ahead of tomorrow’s report. I’ll discuss that next hour if it becomes a threat.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1180.75 | 1176.75 |
| …would target | 1185.50 | 1181.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1175.50 | 1171.50 |
| …would target | 1169.00 | 1165.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1173.75 | 1169.75 |
| …would target | 1179.25 | 1175.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1167.50 | 1163.50 |
| …would target | 1162.50 | 1158.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1177.25 | 1173.25 |
| …would target | 1181.75 | 1177.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1170.25 | 1166.25 |
| …would target | 1162.50 | 1158.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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It’s 2:30… Do you know where the bias-down signal is?
It’s being tested now, as overnight selling retraces all of yesterday afternoon’s bounce.
[pay]A “Session-long decline” setup isn’t available. But gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s 1166.00 low would still be bearish. So it’s interesting that 1165.25 was just touched.
Price has been dipping since the Globex open. Before then, actually, since the afternoon’s 1171.00 high pushed back into a close back under the noon hour’s 1169.50 high. This feature indicated that buyers didn’t gain traction. And that’s what open’s the door to sellers.
Back above 1167.50 would start to suggest this dip is only noise. Another point higher and perhaps the dip refueled buyers. For now, keep an eye on this dip as it tries to accelerate at a critical price while RSIs try to avoid getting more deeply oversold.
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