Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1095.25 | 1093.25 |
| …would target | 1100.00 | 1098.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1089.75 | 1087.75 |
| …would target | 1083.25 | 1081.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1103.25 | 1101.00 |
| …would target | 1108.50 | 1106.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1093.50 | 1091.50 |
| …would target | 1085.75 | 1083.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Bias-up on hold… Bias-down still a no-show.
This morning’s bias-up environment has lapsed, intact.
[pay]The noon hour was entered while still testing the 1094.00 bias-up signal as support. This morning’s bias-up environment lapsed the same way.
The big 10-11 point tumble was a lot of selling, but it remained within the bias-up parameters. The gap back to yesterday’s cash session and futures closes were essentially filled, but positive territory wasn’t abandoned. So, similar to yesterday morning’s rally, a lot of selling pressure has been expended without damaging the chart.
The selling seems convincing because it fits the bearish scenario of the past week-plus rally being a corrective bounce, which is only retesting the range’s upper-end. It seems convincing because that retest was fulfilled just moments before the drop. And it seems convincing because the drop was so big.
If the bearish scenario is in-play, then this afternoon should be very ugly. If this afternoon doesn’t improve this morning’s gains, then tomorrow could be very ugly. But a sell signal that the trend is reversing down doesn’t trigger from positive territory. Until then, the burden of proof is on sellers.
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1099.00 | 1096.75 |
| …would target | 1107.00 | 1105.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1092.25 | 1090.25 |
| …would target | 1083.50 | 1081.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Still a bias-up, FWISW.
All upside objective fulfilled, gravity did its thing. Clever buyers? Patient? Or, just done?
[pay]Only moments after having satisfied all upside objective, S&Ps were suddenly hit by a steep drop. It has since extended down from 1103.25 to 1092.25.
The 1094.50 bias-up signal is essentially being tested as support, and should continue holding tests as support, until this morning’s bias-up environment begins lapsing at 11:30.
Extending down then, or going into the noon hour, would be very vulnerable to extending down sharply into the afternoon.
Holding the 1094.50 area would help to absorb sellers for a retest of today’s 1098.25 opening gap. But this is otherwise a very ugly development, and it is very much in-line with the bearish pattern of holding a retest of prior highs.
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