Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1072.75 | 1068.00 |
| …would target | 1077.00 | 1072.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1067.00 | 1062.25 |
| …would target | 1060.25 | 1055.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1067.75 | 1063.00 |
| …would target | 1071.75 | 1067.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1060.00 | 1055.50 |
| …would target | 1052.00 | 1047.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Afternoon bias
[pay]
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1066.75 | 1062.00 |
| …would target | 1070.75 | 1066.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 1061.00 | 1056.50 |
| …would target | 1055.25 | 1050.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
[/pay]
Can a bias-down bounce?
An optimistic counter-trend rally is possible, but its consequences would be bearish.
[pay]The opening 15 minutes of volatility bounce to a test of the 1057.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Its recovery through 10:15 would trigger a no-bias environment. The bounce ended along with the open’s volatility, and the 10:00 econ report sent S&Ps back down to 1052. The bias-down signal was triggered at 10:15.
It’s too late for a recovery to cleanly trigger bias-up. A recovery above 1056.50-1057.50 after 10:30 would signal a bias-down rally underway, its purpose being to refuel sellers for a bigger downleg later. So, the most bullish scenario near-term is also the most bearish scenario longer-term.
Otherwise, the 1050.50 bias-down target is in-play. Regardless of whether it is met, entering the noon hour under 1052 would suggest the ranging was limited to this morning only – this afternoon would be likely to trend down.
[/pay]
Morning bias
[pay]
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1070.00 | 1066.00 |
| …would target | 1077.75 | 1073.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1061.75 | 1057.50 |
| …would target | 1054.75 | 1050.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
[/pay]