Bias-parameters
Ticking higher from the no-bias range.
[pay]The session’s last hour is being entered with an attack on this morning’s highs (not the pre-open highs). Optimism carried the market to these levels. It can carry the market higher if not put down before the close.
A positive reaction to INTC earnings after the close could be a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday. I have no opinion whether the reaction will be positive. But I would be surprised if a negative reaction from up here around 902’00 wasn’t quickly absorbed and retraced back to 904’00 pre-open highs.
The only way to confidently reverse the trend down tomorrow before Wednesday’s open is to sell-off before today’s close. Then, post-close gains can be absorbed without the chart achieving anything not already achieved.
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No-bias, just anxiousness.
[pay]The noon hour’s range was relatively narrow. The next 20 minutes were narrower. Since neither bias-up signal was exceeded, the no-bias environment is extended into the afternoon. Neither bias signal was even touched (the 902’00 bias-up signal was touched before noon), so the other bias signal is not in-play.
That makes the fourth consecutive no-bias environment, and probably the third to continue ranging sideways. This paralysis could extend until INTC earnings after the close, and then resume after that reaction while awaiting tomorrow morning’s announcements from IBM, JPM and GOOG.
This morning’s 889’25 bias-down signal still requires a test, along with retracing yesterday morning’s no-bias rally. Trending attempted before the afternoon’s no-bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 would not be credible. Any higher highs are still considered excessive optimism requiring a retracement.
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 906 | 902’00 |
| …would target | 910.75 | 907’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 898.75 | 895’00 |
| …would target | 893.25 | 889’25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 903.50 | 899’50 |
| …would target | 910.75 | 907’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 894 | 889’25 |
| …would target | 885 | 881’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 897.25 | 893’25 |
| …would target | 903.25 | 899’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 886.75 | 883’00 |
| …would target | 881 | 877’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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