Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 883 | 879’00 |
| …would target | 887 | 883’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 874.75 | 870’75 |
| …would target | 867.50 | 863’50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 879 | 875’00 |
| …would target | 882.25 | 878’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 870 | 866’25 |
| …would target | 862.75 | 858’75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 884.50 | 882’50 |
| …would target | 892.25 | 888’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 878.75 | 875’00 |
| …would target | 870.75 | 867’00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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No-bias means no-bias.
[pay]The afternoon’s 882’75 bias-up signal didn’t trigger at 1:20, despite having been pierced by 1 tick after the noon hour. The resulting no-bias environment made the 875’00 bias-down signal likelier to be tested, although this setup is more reliable in the mornings. In fact, the past hour’s very narrow ranging suggests this afternoon’s buyers are copying this morning’s sellers, expending their energy at an inappropriate time.
We still can’t count out the potential for probing yesterday’s highs above 884’00, and higher highs would still be vulnerable to reversing back into the range for an “ineffectual optimism” day. But higher highs are not a sell signal. They would be vulnerable to gaining traction for extending higher. Rejecting higher highs through the close would keep alive tomorrow’s bearish potential.
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 886.75 | 882’75 |
| …would target | 891.50 | 887’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 878.75 | 875’00 |
| …would target | 873 | 869’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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