Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 926.75 | 922’50 |
| …would target | 931.50 | 927’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 920 | 916’00 |
| …would target | 913 | 908’75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 920.50 | 916’25 |
| …would target | 925 | 921’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 915 | 910’00 |
| …would target | 909.25 | 905’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 919.50 | 915’25 |
| …would target | 925 | 921’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 913.75 | 909’75 |
| …would target | 907.25 | 903’00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 915.75 | 911’50 |
| …would target | 920.75 | 916’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 906 | 902’00 |
| …would target | 900 | 895’75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Bias-up target met, where buyers lose steam again.
[pay]The 908’50 bias-up signal was exceeded at 1:30 by the highest level of its 1:20-1:30 testing. The lateness undermined its credibility – obviously not its ability to fulfill the 913’25 bias-up target, but any confidence in maintaining the gain.
There is no unfinished business above, so failing to hold tsts of 912’50 as support would suggest the late break higher had run its course. Sellers wouldn’t start gaining traction until falling back under 910’00. Otherwise, closing above the 913’25 bias-up target would next target 921’00 and potentially 930’50.
At this moment, thirty minutes of narrow ranging around 913’25 are being accompanied by 1-minute MACD & RSI diverging negatively. If the bounce has ended and buyers don’t regain traction, then new lows today would be likely.
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