Bias-parameters
Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 912.75 | 908’50 |
| …would target | 917.25 | 913’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 906.50 | 902’50 |
| …would target | 900 | 895’75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 916.25 | 912’00 |
| …would target | 921.25 | 917’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 907 | 903’00 |
| …would target | 900 | 895’75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 926.75 | 922’50 |
| …would target | 931.50 | 927’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 920 | 916’00 |
| …would target | 912.25 | 908’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Not very biased, not very up.
[pay]The 922’50 bias-up signal held its test as resistance through all relevant timing windows, triggering a no-bias environment. This makes the 916’00 bias-down signal likely to be tested, as well. Normally, positioning for this outcome would be obvious.
This morning’s pattern adds a wrinkle to that plan. Having waited so long overnight before firming into the cash session’s open, the pre-open strength might still try extending the bounce higher, first. So, I would be careful shorting above the 922’50 bias-up signal, and might even consider long-entry above 924’00.
Otherwise, the balance of the morning remains likelier to gravitate down to and/or through 918’00, to 916’00, and then be positioned for aggressive selling this afternoon. A probe into the 924’00-925’00 area that reverses back under 922’50 would be a compelling short-entry. Any higher high could even find its way up to the 931’00 area. But the ultimate resolution of any scenario would be expected to break aggressively under yesterday’s lows.
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Morning bias
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| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 926.75 | 922’50 |
| …would target | 931.50 | 927’50 |
| Bias-down: under | 920 | 916’00 |
| …would target | 912.25 | 908’00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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