Bias-parameters
Morning bias
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| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 943.25 | 939’00 |
| …would target | 950 | 945’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 936.25 | 932’00 |
| …would target | 928.50 | 924’25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET (ALL VALUES ARE BASIS SEP) | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 943.25 | 943’00 |
| …would target | 950.25 | 950’00 |
| Bias-down: under | 937.25 | 937’00 |
| …would target | 931 | 930’75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
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Morning bias
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| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 950.25 | 950’00 |
| …would target | 957.50 | 957’25 |
| Bias-down: under | 943.25 | 943’00 |
| …would target | 935.25 | 935’00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
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Afternoon bias
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| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 943.25 | 943’00 |
| …would target | 948 | 947’75 |
| Bias-down: under | 935 | 934’75 |
| …would target | 928.75 | 928’50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
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No-bias is no buy signal. The Gotcha! setup lives.
[pay]The overnight range wasn’t very narrow, but it was contained entirely within yesterday’s late surge. The overnight low probed the 934’75 bias-down signal by 2 ticks. The overnight range’s upper-end was limited to 943’00, last Tuesday’s close and the rally’s highest close.
The cash session’s open probed higher highs that attacked this morning’s 945’50 bias-up signal. The strength was retraced back down to unchanged levels around 938’50, which held through both 10:15 and 10:30.
The balance of the morning probably won’t trend any more so than the overnight action, and probably less predictably. Except for the potential to fade attacks on either end of the 937’00-943’00 range, this is essentially a “dry cleaners” morning.
A break lower going into the noon hour would signal that a more involved selling effort was underway. A break higher could still qualify as distribution. Regardless, buyers clearly haven’t regained traction, and the burden of proof was placed on them to disprove Friday’s Gotcha! setup.
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